It is extremely difficult to call the top of any market and this is no different. It would appear though, that with news recently from the Bank of England that interest rate rises by the end of the year are likely, that Gilt yields may be as low as they can get.
A rise in UK interest rates would mean a rise in bond yields as they compete directly for investor’s money. The value of gilts would therefore fall and transfer values would, in turn, reduce.
Gilt yields are not the only component part in the calculation of transfer values though. Other factors, such as life expectancy, scheme funding or investment returns could change to support or even increase values further. However, with most of the recent increase in transfer values attributable to falls in gilt yield, any reverse in this position would likely lead to reductions.
It could be that now is the peak for transfer values, but only time will tell.
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